The S&P500 troughed on June 1, 2012 at 1,278. It was the day May non-farm payroll surprised to the downside by a big chunk (+69K vs +150K consensus and downward revision for the prior months). The S&P500 traded lower the next day but snapped back above the 200-day moving average the day after. Thereafter it grinded higher on combination of favorable comments from the Fed and the ECB members, and on better than expected US macro data. The start of the Q2 earnings season on July 9th meant that investor focus shifted to corporate news from macro headlines. From June 1 to August 21, when the S&P500 touched 4-year high on the intra-day basis (1,426), it gained ~10%. Energy and Tech led the rallies but their outperformance was relatively muted. Telecom Services and Pharma lagged but only slightly.
The bottom line is that the defensive sectors (Telecom Services, Pharma, Food & Staples Retailing and Software and Services) have acted much better both in the downturn as well as the upturn. Cyclical sectors (Autos, Semis and Consumer Durables and Apparel) have fared the worst.
The S&P500 is hitting against important resistance levels. If it were to make a next leg up, I would bet that the cyclicals will have to do the heavy lifting. That means, if you are bullish, buy Semis, Materials, Diversified Financials and Tech Hardware.
