Thursday, February 28, 2013

Right and Wrong on Natural Gas on the Same Day

Yesterday, I was right and wrong on my call on natural gas price, which I made just the day before. I said the price is trending higher, and it did. Then later price fell.

Natural gas had a massive move yesterday. It was up 3% by noon and by the end of the day was down almost a percent, a massive reversal  Looking at the UNG (natural gas ETF) trade, someone put big trades around 2:00pm that caused price to crater. There is no news on natural gas around that time. One plausible reason could be the expiration of natural gas future contracts but that event was the day before (Feb 26).

If you don't know whom to blame, blame the weather. That's exactly what the WJS did (Natural Gas Prices Reverse Gains As Forecasts Turn Warmer). But weather did not turn warmer. According to more credible source, AccuWeather, they put out a story yesterday morning that said the opposite (Winter to Continue: March to Yield Snowstorms).