Wednesday, January 30, 2013

GDP = C+I+X+G... But Something is Missing

2012 Q4 GDP surprised everyone with a negative print (-0.1%). This was the first negative read since 2009 Q2 (-0.3%), and occurred despite a 2.2% increase in personal consumption expenditure, the largest component of GDP, making up more than 70%.

The culprits for the negative GDP read were "change in private business inventories" and "expenditure on national defense". Inventories peeled off 1.27% from GDP, while defense spending subtracted another 1.28%.

Why inventories were depleted during Q4 is anyone's guess. One can blame Hurricane Sandy, which impacted much of the US north-east during that period. It created logistical nightmares. Businesses had to rely on their stock to satisfy customers. This is kind of counter-intuitive given that retailers like Kohl's and JC Penny had "over-inventory" problem during Q4 because of warmer than expected weather. Be as it may, if it was unintentional withdrawal of inventory, it should boost GDP in Q1. We'll see if that happens.

A sharp reduction in defense spending in Q4 is also puzzling especially given that defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman reported decent Q4 numbers. I have not heard any plausible reason yet but may be there is.

US stock markets did not react too negatively to Q4 GDP because nobody believed it. A normal reaction to such number would have been Dow opening down 200 points. The market did end the day down and at the lows of the session but that's more to do with the FOMC announcement than GDP ("sell the news" trade).

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Private equity gets deeper into debt


Fortune, 24-Jan-13
By Dan Primack

Leverage multiples on the rise.

Leveraged buyout debt multiples are on the rise, according to S&P Leveraged Commentary & Data.

LCD breaks its numbers out by company size, with "large" being anything with more than $50 million in EBITDA. And, for those deals, leverage multiples rose to 5.3x in 2012. This includes a 5.5x mark for Q4 2012, and represents the fourth straight annual increase since a 4x nadir in 2009. The all-time high mark was 6.2x in 2007, while the 5.3x figure matches what LCD saw in 2005.

For "small" companies of $50 million of less in EBITDA, the LBO debt multiple hit 4.5x in 2012. This included a 5x figure in Q4, and compared to 4.3x in 2011

Overall purchase price multiples for all LBOs fell to 7.9x in 2012, which is the second-lowest mark in the past six years (2009 being the outlier).

Large LBO purchase price multiples fell from 9.1x in 2011 to 8.9x in 2011, although they hit 9.2x in Q4 2012. Similar story in the smaller market, with an 8.9 figure for all of 2012 -- compared to 9.1x in 2011 and 9.2x in Q4 2012.

Equity contributions stayed fairly flat on large deals at around 36%, while smaller deal equity contributions climbed past 40%. The below chart represents equity contributions for all private equity deals:

Monday, January 28, 2013

S&P500 Ripe for a Roll-over

The S&P500 broke the 8-day winning streak and fell just marginally. On a weeekly basis, it is still up for all 4 weeks of the year.

The trend looks like it is topping, not least because it is hitting against psychologically important 1,500 level. The index has tried to break above 1,500 in a meaninful way in the last 3 sessions but has not been able to. Meanwhile, the tops in the relative strength index (RSI) has been lower and lower. This technical divergence along with a jump in VIX support the notion that the S&P500 is ripe for a roll-over.

The index will not just roll-over on its own because so far it has been catching a bid on any weakness. There has to be a catalyst and there are quiet a few this week.
1) ADP Employment on Wednesday
2) FOMC statement also on Wednesday
3) Jobless Claims on Thursday
4) Chicago PMI also on Thursday
5) Payroll on Friday
6) ISM also on Friday.
7) Any weakness (for whatever reason) in the overseas markets.

Byron Wien Expects a Major Sell-Off

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Economics & Earnings Calendar This Week

Monday
Earnings:
Caterpillar, Yahoo, Biogen Idec, BMC Software, VMWare, Celanese, Graco, Roper, Illumina, International Rectifier, Seagate, Crane, Olin

0830 am Durable goods
1000 am Pending home sales
1030 am Dallas Fed Survey
0100 pm $35 billion 2-year note auction

Tuesday
Earnings:
Amazon, Ford, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, DR Horton, EMC, Harley Davidson, Illinois Tool Works, Corning, Ashland, Allstate, Valero, Peabody Energy, International Paper, Tyco, Tupperware, Broadcom, Boston Properties, Nucor, CIT Group, AK Steel

2-day FOMC meeting begins
0900 am S&P/Case Shiller home prices
1000 am Consumer confidence
0100 pm $35 billion 5-year note auction

Wednesday
Earnings:
Boeing, Facebook, Qualcomm, Fiat/Chrysler, Hess, Conoco Phillips, Cannon, Marathon Petroleum, L-3 Comm, MeadWestvaco, JDS Uniphase, Northrop Grumman, NTT DoCoMo, Phillips 66, Cannon, ADT, Wisconsin Energy, Booz Allen Hamilton, Manpower Group, Southern Co, Skyworks, Owens-Illinois, Murphy Oil, Duke Realty, Rockwell Automation

0700 am Mortgage applications
0815 am ADP employment
0830 am Real GDP fourth quarter final
0100 pm $29 billion 7-year note auction
0215 pm FOMC statement

Thursday
Earnings:
Deutsche Bank, Royal Dutch Shell, Aetna, Blackstone, Altria, Hershey, Time Warner Cable, Viacom, Dow Chemical, UPS, Chubb, McKesson, PerkinElmer, Reinsurance Group of America, Manitowoc, Thermo Fisher Scientific, MasterCard, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Ericsson, Potash, Pulte Group, Bemis, Corinthian Colleges, Meritage Homes, Ryder Systems, Eastman Chemical, CR Bard

0830 am Initial claims
0830 am Personal income
0830 am Employment cost index
0945 am Chicago PMI

Friday
Earnings:
Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Merck, Tyson Foods, Beam, Ingersoll-Rand, Mattel, Newell Rubbermaid, Lear, Aon
Monthly vehicle sales
0830 am Employment report
0955 am Consumer sentiment
1000 am ISM manufacturing
1000 am Construction spending

Cramer's Game Plan for Week of January 28, 2013

Citi Economic Surprise Indicator Portends a Surprise for the S&P500

The Economic Surprise Indicator (ESI) from Citigroup is quite popular amongst analysts/traders that want to track how actual economic data compare to expectations. In a way, it measures relative optimism and pessimism amongst professional forecasters regarding the economy, which is a very useful tool for investors.

ESI is constructed daily by taking a weighted average “surprises” (actual release sversus Bloomberg survey median forecasts) observed over the past three months. Older surprises are discounted relative to more recent surprises to prevent the index from becoming stale.  A value greater (less) than zero denotes stronger- (weaker)- than-expected data, whereas a value near zero indicates that the data have been coming in as expected. As the Fed paper, points out, (1) there is a high degree of auto-correlation, which suggests that there is stickiness to economists' forecast. The Fed paper doubts such to be the case but we think it is the case (people don't change their views day-to-day), and (2) the weights are based on the historical impact of each data surprise on the U.S. market i.e. payrolls and ISMs have higher weights that others. Such weighting may not be appropriate for the Fed policymakers but it is definitely relevant for investors.

As the chart show, the ESI tends to lead the S&P500 variance with its 200-day moving average by about 3-6 months. If this relationship were to hold, then we should see pull-back in the S&P500 towards its 200-day moving average.