Friday, April 20, 2012

Interesting Charts: IMF Global Financial Stability Report (April 2012)

Global Financial Stability Report
[Full Link]

There are lot interesting charts in the latest edition of IMF's Global Stability report. Given the focus of investors on the European sovereign crisis, here are the 4 notable ones.

The ECB has been the most aggressive among the world's central banks in providing liquidity. It seems the Fed is the most conservative, relative to the size of the US economy.
Given the ECB's aggressive stance, credit contraction has been less pronounced there than during other financial crisis. Even in the "worst case scenario", credit cruch will be nowhere as severe as in the US during the 2008-09 crisis.
The IMF estimates that European banks need to shed $1.5 trillion assets during the next year-and-half to bring Tier 1 ratio to the target level. The question is who's going to be the buyers of the assets? The ECB again? The Fed?
Europe's impact on the US banks is something to watch out for given the banks' exposure through their derivatives business. If the crisis spreads to France then the problems will get bigger. If Germany and the UK become victims, then all bets are off.