The problem is the stock market is this whole contest where you're competing against other creators. So the question is: Are there some traders that are better than others? I think the answer is probably, Yes. I'm not a pure markets guy, I played poker long enough which I think has parallel skills to trading in many respects where you know that some people are better over the long-term and better at accounting for uncertainty and so forth. But there's a lot of volatility and a lot of luck where a market cycle can last for months or years. There are a lot of perverse incentives that get in the way. So while I think there are some good traders, in the near term, even over a period of five or 10 years, it will mostly be dictated by luck, so it's tricky.
Have you ever applied your model to dating?
I did one little analysis with OkCupid for a New York Times Magazine piece a couple of years ago where we were trying to figure out the best night of the week to go out and get laid basically. So OkCupid collected the data of some status reports of people who were out and about using their mobile application. And we looked at the ratio of people who wanted a long-term relationship vs. people who wanted just something for [that night]. On Wednesday apparently you get the highest ratio of people who are just looking for something quick and dirty. <Click Here for More>
